How will American Farmers benefit at farm level as everyone rushes to get a piece of biofuels new action? Can North America keep its global dominance over major commodity crops? There are no quick and easy answers, but watching giant actors already on stage might give major clues.

Brazil came from a dark-horse supplier of soybeans to global supply levels in less than 20 years. Now the country has become the first country in the world to become independent of foreign oil imports with biofuels. Only a few years ago we were spending our Sunday mornings hearing "ADM...Supermarket to the world" and now in a few short years we see the giant commodity processor has taken a top woman Exxon executive as CEO. No doubt the idea there was to propel the ADM biofuels business to the top of the profit agenda of the company. While still basic in further processed commodities as fructose, vegetable oils, and high value by-product of crops like vitamins and food ingredients, analysts are betting on biofuels as the big mover of shareholder value ahead. In response Wall Street has rewarded the stock by more than doubling of price in a year, splitting and rising again.

When assessing "indicators" in the agricultural sectors few would miss Cargill. As the world's largest "private" company over the past decade, Cargill uses its worldwide clout to leverage virtually every part of agribusiness. Combined business sets have reported sales of more than $60 billion and most insiders whisper about profits "exploding" in many areas of their business. While they are also known for splinter investment areas like "mini mill" steel business, and often seen basic in trasport by rail and ship globally, they stick to the basics of agriculture as their "root metaphor" for existence. We have been inside the company on numerous occassions and when asked what their business is, everyone says without hesitation "agriculture". Family members long removed from earth and farms would echo the same story with no shame. When looking for "T-O-War" team members, you have to put ADM and Cargill on the same side.

SETTING UP TEAMS

Setting up the "teams" for this Olympic-sized T-O-W might be the real job for economic forecasters. This "war" is not only a war among corporate interests, it surely will pit farming choices, policy makers and governments against each other as well. Farm-based groups are heavy factors in this competition, but often it is hard to tell which side they want to be on. (Often what some refer to as "the associations" are mostly mid-level players who become quickly politicos who enjoy the "postion" more than the "mission". We've all noted the seeming corruption of T&E as companies call their 'travel and entertainment' line item expenses. Headlines tell all the time about elected officials who abuse their positions and corrupt their T&E as a personal priviledge. Associations soon become "meeting havens" with exotic desitinations as perks for staff and so-called "board members". As more and more associations are created among biofuels interests this will play itself out again and again.)